Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
